You right. If everyone today buying a new car wanted an EV that won’t happen as the industry needs to scale up, both for EV and grid.
At the same time the EV industry is cutting costs. By 2027 the entry level price for an EV will $20,000 in the U.S., lower in China now.
Sodium batteries are in production now. Easier to ramp up production, no cobalt etc. wider temperature range and fast charging.
For mid level to premium price 500 mile range options are available today. The production ramp for high density silicon anodes is ramping up. High density silicon anodes is the likely winner for high volume production of 500 to 600 mile range by 2027.
As to the grid, the electric demand for heat pumps is more of an opportunity for expanding the market for electric power then EV charging. If increased demand is forecast, utilities will invest. Yes it will take 20 plus years of constant new construction. Will electrical capacity perfectly match new EV and heat pump demand each and every year? No but long term yes.
Final point heavy trucks has a 20 year life. So assume it takes 5 more years of development to match batteries and EV heavy trucks to industry needs. It will take at least 20 years to fully replace heavy trucks. So about 2048 or maybe 2055.
Same logic for light vehicles except a bit faster pace once all price points and vehicle types meet consumer desires. Perhaps starts in 2030.
Yes it is a long process of constant improvement in performance and price. The plan is to complete grid infrastructure and EV supply chain by 2050.