With respect to EVs, they are already cost effective, cheaper cost of ownership in commercial and high use cases such as commuters with 50 mile commutes. Last mile delivery, police cars, Uber and many consumer high mileage use cases can be more then 50% cheaper in terms of capital, fuel and maintenance costs.

These cases represent 50% of fossil fuel consumption in light vehicles. If the consumption of gas falls by 50%, some gas stations will close, some refineries will close. My guess is gas prices will increase, but prices could also go down. It depends on the economic models of the gas industry and business decision to milk the market or not.

Analysis here


https://bob-n-martha-roth.medium.com/consumer-knowledge-can-reduce-gas-consumption-faster-than-improved-ev-charging-range-or-price-65b0f65c0779