This is a fun topic. Fair warning this text from an optimist.
First EV batttery technology is fast moving to 300 miles range, fast charging 250 miles in 5 minutes, battery weight 400 pounds, expected battery life more than 1,200,000 miles and cost < $2000. Check out LFP, high Silicon anode density, Li Sulfur Graphene and solid state batteries in production today and samples to EV vendors.
Concerning Tesla: Musk has pissed off US and EU folks on the left. Tesla value for FSD is a Myth, at least based on buying criteria of US consumers. Tesla has near zero battery technology in hand, so no competitive advantage there. So good design and manufacturing process but likely not enough to deal with mega trends.
Ok back to economics. About 20% of light vehicles consume 50% of gasoline and diesel in the US. For heavy trucks EV win on life cycle costs today. Ok assume by 2027 to progress of EV battery value hits the tipping point of market acceptance.
EV resale value compared to gas will be lower because of the continuous progress in EV technology. So used vehicle sales of EV will accelerate fast and cost sensitive users will op for EV over gasoline.
So gasoline and diesel consumption falls. What will the oil industry do will all that oil in the ground and so little demand? Decrease price? But refining and transport cost per gallon likely means lower volume = higher cost. Gasoline and diesel prices may go up not down.
As gas stations see fewer consumers at the gas pumps what happens? Some close right?
Consumers notice fewer gas stations and higher gas prices and improving cost and value in EVs.
My prediction as a certified optimist is 2027 will see a continuously improving EV market share.