There is a path for Tesla’s stock to rise up. Perhaps spike in value in 5 years then back down to leading but not by much in 10 years.
However you are right the odds are against it. Basically the auto industry woke up when Tesla won market share from higher margin segments a bit quicker then expected. Now there is a race to build production capacity. Tesla leads in higher margins and more production per factory capital cost. What will spike demand? New battery chemistry that has no production logistics issues and cost half or less then today’s price. So Si anodes, Na Batteries not Li plus solid batteries are examples of solutions in early production.
Those solutions are available to all vendors Tesla has some bets on battery technology but likely won’t own any significant advantage.
So ok assume battery technology makes a $25,000 EV with high margins possible and qualified for US $7500 tax credit. A spike in demand will follow.
Tesla factories build EVs in 10 hours, other vendors 30. All the vendors are building new factories. Can Tesla build them faster with their current lead. Likely yes.
My view is the stock could spike again. However long term their market position is likely tied with Toyota best case.
Grid batteries and home solar likely will grow in value but likely Tesla will be one of many in that growing market.