Some counter points .
We have spent $3 trillion plus on wars based on oil supply. So deduct $ 3 trillion as we avoid yet another series of Middle East wars.
Next oil profits fund Middle East and Russian terrorists. Russia spends oil profits on advanced nuclear weapons delivery platforms.

Not sure where you are getting your EV numbers. After 3 years of driving Tesla Model 3 my cost per 100 miles is $2.30. Charging has never been an issue.

As to your statement that plug in hybrids are getting better I agree. EV batteries are not standing still. The trend to LFP and sodium batteries (50% of the market today) prices dropping by 75% within 2 years did not enter your projections. The investment in new battery technology to drive energy density 4X improvement and yet another round of cost reduction makes projections based on Li NC etc unrealistic.

China is 5 years ahead of plan to shift to EV. What is motivating them? Money and they don’t want to be dependent on Middle East and Russian oil.

Nor does the EU and US.

By the way Saudi has signaled they will increase oil prices as they fear oil will be left in the ground plus the consumption of gas and diesel will fall more quickly then their recent models suggest.

Final point, most commercial applications travel no more then 100 miles per day. Uber, police, delivery vans can use LFP and save on capital, fuel and maintenance cost compared to gas.

As to semi trucks the bulk of the use cases are a few 100 miles per day. For example semi trucks delivering to super markets from warehouses.

About 60% of fossil fuel use can be replace with EV and save money over gas and diesel. And that is just commercial application where cost drives the buying decision.

As fossil fuel consumption declines by say 50% what do you think refineries will do? Shut down plants to consolidate production, perhaps increase price if they think EV is production limited so milk the market while they can