Some counter points. First in the US 280 million gas cars. There is a long way to go before 10% are EV. Perhaps by 2035 EV production ramps to 18 million a year. Maybe we reach 10% by 2030, 20% by 2040. The electric grid will easily support this. Utility companies are eager to win energy markets from oil. So the grid will be built out.
Next issue, battery chemistry. Li Iron Phosphate batteries has an expected life of 1,000,000 miles. So buy that type if you are worried about replacement cost. Also government required at least 100,000 mile warranty on the battery, some are for 120,000 miles.
Next, commercial use of light vehicles account for 50% of fissile fuel consumption. Those also have lower life time operating costs, so the fleet managers will be shifting to 100% EV, some are doing this now. Heavy trucks account for 25% of fossil fuel. The EV premium is paid back in two years, after that the 10 year savings is about $200,000.
Sodium batteries are now being manufactured for EVs. They will improve in energy density and cost. In fact expect 2026 cost 1/4 of todays cost.
In the lab or in prototype phase are batteries with 4X energy density. TBD date, but 2030 if evolution match’s recent history.
So good news, EV will save money, the oil profits of Russian and Middle East Terrorists will decline.