Robert Roth
1 min readDec 20, 2023

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Some alternative points to consider.

1. No need to convert all vehicles to EV. 50% of gas consumption is by 20% of light vehicles. In those cases, mostly commercial use but some where the job is in the city and low cost housing 50 miles away. These purchase decisions are in process now, based on strong economic win of EV over gas or diesel. Amazon VAN fleet moving from low MPG Vans to EV wins a >30% cost advantage.
EV batteries are declining in cost 18% per year.

By the way 90% of these use case never take a long trip and are under 125 miles a day. So L2 charging overnight is enough.

2. EV at the low end of the market will, in 2025 have a lower purchase price than comparable gas vehicles.That is without government tax benefits.

As gasoline and diesel declines by 50% (around 2023), oil consumption in the U.S. declines by 25%. Less oil profits for Russian and Middle East Terrorists as the U.S. exports more oil. Gasoline and diesel refineries will close to maintain profitability. Gasoline and diesel prices tbd. Milk the market or attempt to slow the transition to EV. The business decision could go either way.

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Robert Roth
Robert Roth

Written by Robert Roth

Retired Intel Electrical Engineer, 70's US Navy Officer Nuclear Power Program, Graduate studies in Business UC Berkeley, BSEE U of Fla.

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