Oil money off the table, what are the implications?
About 50% of gasoline and diesel is consumed by 20% of vehicles. Ball park.
Now assume EV batteries progress to 50% lower cost, 3X expected life and 2X energy density. You don’t need to wait long as that is today’s battery in pilot production.
Ok assume by 2035 the world demand for gasoline and diesel declines by 50%.
Oil for plastics and such continues.
Now assume the world wide oil capacity increases. Even China has found massive oil reserves tbd if the extract same but South America reserves pop up, US oil capacity grows…
What happens to oil profits of Russia, Iran ?
Of course lower but how much. Investments in oil production is likely to fall. The investment in oil extraction likely to fall sharply in Iran and Russia from the oil industry. Too much risk too little return.
Iran can not keep the lights on today.. Russian infrastructure from Soviet era needs replacement/ investment.
I am not sure this leads to a safer world. Will Iran and Russia turn into N Korea?
Just musing on oil - EV battle for market share….