Robert Roth
1 min readNov 19, 2023

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Let me suggest an alternative view of wind, solar and batteries plus replacing gasoline and diesel with electric power.
Economics is the view point driving an exponential shift, the CO2 emissions is a side issue.

Big picture coal and gas produce electric power at a higher cost per kWh then wind solar and battery today. Going forward the engineering eco system will constantly improve the advantage, which will increase the rate of decline of fossil fuels use in electric power generation.

Big picture electric power is 70% cheaper for light vehicles and trucks as a fuel. Add to that the lower maintenance costs and EV are displacing gas and diesel in some commercial use cases today. However the engineering eco system is driving down battery cost at 18% per year. By 2030, the commercial market will 100% EV just based on lowest life cycle costs.

For EV purchased by consumers you have to account for consumer preferences. By 2026, both the purchase price and cost of ownership will favor all type and models for EVs over gasoline or diesel. But that is not the whole story.

Battery density and charge time is continuous improving. Charging at home plus 10 minute charge time to add 250 miles plus 600 mile range will likely satisfy 90% of the consumers confidence in EV.

The quiet ride and instant torque won over the bulk of EV customers to date.

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Robert Roth
Robert Roth

Written by Robert Roth

Retired Intel Electrical Engineer, 70's US Navy Officer Nuclear Power Program, Graduate studies in Business UC Berkeley, BSEE U of Fla.

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