I would add the life cycle cost of EV is already lower then gas in high use cases. Police cars driven 8 to 12 hours a day retired for new every 3 to 5 years for gas cars. An EV drive train has the same expected life as a diesel engine in a heavy truck, 1,000,000 miles. An LFP battery has an expected life of 1,000,000 miles. Also police cars run their engines continuously, So replacement cycle cost is about 1/2 of gas. Add in fuel and maintenance saving you bet fleet manager will shift to EV 100% by 2030. Their are many use cases like this, the US post office delivery truck for one. Uber another and delivery vans. High use case account for 50% of US gas. Consumption. Heavy trucks account for anther 25% and they too see cost saving but their retirement rate is really slow (30 year life of diesel engines). However fuel cost could accelerate the economics for replacement, as could government incentives. Battery technology might increase battery density 2X, making EV trucks a 100% market share.
If fossil fuel consumption in the US drops by 75%, will that affect the supply chain and increase the shift to EV for heavy trucks?