Robert Roth
1 min readDec 8, 2022

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Great points. Today’s more expensive EV for high miles per day applications like police, Uber, and delivery vans are cheaper than gas for the life of the vehicle. About 20 to 30 percent of vehicles account for 50% of gas consumption. 90% of these cases need only over night charging and a range of 250 miles or less is enough. Uber driving 100 miles per day, delivery Vans 60 miles a day. Battery prices are falling quickly, about 30% cost reduction from LFP and use of Si anodes. Ok very nerdy. Cheaper materials are entering mass production. In US economics will drive high use case gas replacement to full replacement in under 10 years, if production can ramp to match demand. So gas consumption declined by 50%. What happens then? Oil companies increase prices (milk the market) sell assets (close filling stations), reduce investments. This will drive more people to EVs. The shift to EV might happen sooner then later.

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Robert Roth
Robert Roth

Written by Robert Roth

Retired Intel Electrical Engineer, 70's US Navy Officer Nuclear Power Program, Graduate studies in Business UC Berkeley, BSEE U of Fla.

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