Good points. My guess for the US is a 50% reduction in gasoline by 2033. Reason :

https://bob-n-martha-roth.medium.com/ev-dreams-oil-653a9b9db01

Diesel will take a bit longer as heavy trucks have a longer life then light vehicles

In any case fossil fuel consumes 50% of oil. In a few decades oil profits will continuously dropped to half of today’s consumption. My guess is the west can cover all their needs without Russia