Robert Roth
2 min readMay 6, 2023

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Fun topic. First I agree the transition to EV will be fast.
Today high use of fossil fuels cases makes EV the economic choice. Delivery vans, Uber, police cars, commuters that drive more then 100 miles a day are cases where the bottom line drives the decision . These cases are about 20% of vehicles but consume 50% of gas and diesel. The EV adoption rate of these use cases will likely move to 80% by 2026. Note these use cases do not need charging infrastructure as 100% of there needs in met with L2 charge over night.
What happens when gas and diesel consumption drops by 50%? My prediction gas and diesel prices will jump by 30 to 50% as the industry milks the fast declining market.
This price jump in fossil fuel will result in a jump in sales pace. And the existing fossil fuel fleet will be retired early or converted to EV (already happening)
As to consumer only buying the best, most efficient EV, I don’t see this. Most sales, the 80% of the market of light use buy what is cool. So Tesla advantage not as strong as the article suggests.
Th EV pace of battery technology improvement in next 5 years will be faster then the last 5. This means range, cost, life of batteries in 5 years will boost sales and market acceptance of all market segments.
and all vendors. In short the market opportunity is larger then current unit volume, of gas and EVs, at least for a decade or so as fossil fuel declines to zero production.

Summary. Tesla will be fine. Other vendors will sell a pretty design and most will be OK as most consumers don’t buy the optimum performance and battery tech will help level the performance from all vendors.

FSD, vehicle to grid $, are upside values that could accelerate growth.

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Robert Roth
Robert Roth

Written by Robert Roth

Retired Intel Electrical Engineer, 70's US Navy Officer Nuclear Power Program, Graduate studies in Business UC Berkeley, BSEE U of Fla.

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