Robert Roth
2 min readJan 23, 2023

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First I agree the mandates to sell only EV are not required. But I don’t agree that charging time is the barrier to acceptance. Here is what you missed in your analysis.

More fun to drive. That is why Tesla took market share from gas cars and first place in sales for $40k to $70k class of cars. You know, where the industry makes their highest profit.

Ok let’s say you are an average US driver driving 37 miles a day. Plus did you know in the US less than 0.5% of car trips are over 150miles. So ok I take joy in driving a very quiet and responsive car every day and in the last 3 years and 55,000 mile of driving used external charging 18 days out of 1000 and none longer then 20 minutes. Which will I choose for my next car? Yup the EV to maximize my joy.
What is the trend for battery cost, charging time and range? All improving at a fast chip.
By 2035 battery cost drops by 90% (the current trend). The industry supplies every shape and size and price point.
Did you know 10% of vehicles consume 30% of fossil fuel. Today the EV is hands down the lowest life cycle cost. Example : commercial vans averaging 60 miles a day and 18 MPG. Two hours of charging time each day will supply 100% of the use case fuel. No public charging needed.

By 2035 fossil fuel demand for light vehicles could drop by 50%. Gas stations will begin to close, consumers will shift to EV as the trend is clear, the cost advantage is EV. And EV have already won fun to drive.

Will some use cases be better served with fossil fuel. Yes, but 90% conversion by 2035 is good enough.

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Robert Roth
Robert Roth

Written by Robert Roth

Retired Intel Electrical Engineer, 70's US Navy Officer Nuclear Power Program, Graduate studies in Business UC Berkeley, BSEE U of Fla.

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