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EV Trends to higher market share means lower gasoline and diesel sales
The expected life of an EV is about 300,000 miles. So, buy an EV and then eventually sell it, that EV will continue to avoid gasoline or diesel for 300,000 miles. Let’s say you lease a new EV every 3 years. In 12 years, you have injected 4 X 300000 or 1,200,000 miles of not driving on gasoline or diesel in the vehicle eco system. For every new EV customer, the oil industry loss of gasoline or diesel is worth about 1,200,000 miles divided by 25 MPG avg times about $4.00 per gallon. (The cost varies by location I know. After tax, the price per gallon in the US, UK, Germany, France and Spain is about $4.00). So, $192,000 sales lost by the oil industry for each new EV customer continually buying new EVs over the years.
Each convert to EVs is a big deal to the oil industry. They worry about stranded assets depressing their stock value. And the stock price is set by projecting forward the potential earnings for decades.
All of which explains why propaganda from the oil industry is very opposed to EV. That is, they lie. Oil, gasoline and diesel political spending favors folks who don’t favor EVs. Trump is fully supported by the petrol industry for example and is against EVs.
Assume EV sales ramp to 10 million new customers per year in the EU and US. How much future revenue is taken…
