EV drive trains have an expected life of 1,000,000 miles. LFP batteries have an expected life of 1,200,000 miles. About 50% of EVs use LFP. 20% of gas vehicles consume 50% of fissile fuel. 100% of those use cases will convert to EV to save money on capital cost, fuel and maintenance. By 2033 fossil fuel consumption will decrease by 50%, some refineries will close to keep the rest running a profit volume. Some gas stations will close. What happens to price of gas. TBD industry might milk the declining market or attempt to slow conversation from gas.
Note that EV with LFP batteries have a longer life then 10 years for most use cases.

Li air batteries projected to have 4X current power density. Yes only proven in lab but lots of motivation to bring this to production.

My take on why 50% reduction will occur within 10 years here

https://bob-n-martha-roth.medium.com/when-will-gas-refineries-close-3c54ac0d5898

Coltura has a different path to 50% reduction based on the economics for super users (long commutes )

My use cases focus on commercial cases police cars, delivery vans Uber, cabs as these cases are more driven by financial folks. Even Uber drivers are given the financial case by Uber.

In any case the economics will quickly drive fossil fuel consumption down by 50%. Within about 10years and only needs to convert about 20% of light vehicles

https://www.coltura.org/.