Consumer knowledge can reduce gas consumption faster than improved EV charging, range or price

This paper asserts that consumer and commercial education will increase the pace of conversion from gas to EVs by > 5 years. And, I am guessing, that when gas consumption declines by 50%, the pace of conversion from gas to EV will accelerate. Consumer and commercial perceptions of risk will shift to favor EV’s , not gas vehicles, once gas infrastructure begins to decline.

When will gas consumption decline by 50% in the US? What can be done today to accelerate the shift from gas to EV’s and bring that date forward?

First assume that EV production will capture 100% of new car sales by 2030 and the production ramp of EVs averages 9 million EV per year between now and 2030, and full production is at 18 million EVs per year. So 7 years at 9 million per year, EVs replace 63 million gas cars within 7 years. There are 290 million gas vehicles in the US, the remaining 290–63= 227 million gas cars would be converted to EV in (227million gas vehicles) /18 million EVs sold per year = 12.6 years. So zero or near zero gas consumption in about 20 years. To reach 50% reduction in gas consumption would take 290 / 2 or 145 million gas vehicles converted, so 7 years at 9 million per year plus 145–63 or 82 million at 18 million per year. So 82/18 = 4.6 years plus 7 years or 11.6 years to reach a 50% reduction in gas consumption.

That simple analysis is not correct. First, 20% of consumer vehicles consume 50% of gas. What if 100% of EV sales replaced the 56 million cases that consume 50% of the gas consumed in the US? What if commercial high use vehicle applications like police cars, delivery vans, post office trucks, Uber that drive 50 to 125 miles a day were to make the economic savings of EV a priority? Could gas consumption reach a 50% reduction in just 6 years?

But what about EV range issues, battery replacement cost issues and public charging? These issues are not limiting cost saving, they are solved for 98% of high use case, high gas consumption applications. However, the public has not been told why these are no longer an issue.

A short story. I met a fireman who commuted 85 miles to work, each way. He loved driving his truck but discovered in 2023 he really liked driving an EV better. And he saved $900 a month in gas, charged up the EV every night in his home so never stopped at a gas station. Why did he wait 4 years to save $900 a month in fuel? How many long distance commuters are there and why are they waiting to save money? My guess is a large number of them use out of date information on EV’s.

Coltura publishes a data analysis on gas use and estimates that 20% of light vehicle use by consumers consume 50% of the gas. Conversion from gas to EV would pay for the EV plus some saving would be money in the consumers pocket.

https://www.coltura.org/policy-change

https://www.coltura.org/gasoline-superusers

By just educating consumers (commercial and private), the date to reach a 50% reduction in gas consumption could be several years sooner.

And when gas consumption drops by 50%, the decline to 0 gas consumption will be faster because, I predict, gas prices will increase and gas stations will close.

Why will a decline in gas consumption lead to an increase in gas prices? Essentially gas refineries and gas stations will begin closing when gas consumption drops significantly. Declining by 50% is enough to start closing refineries and gas stations and drive up the price of gas. Of course, the decline in gas consumption, and closing of refineries and gas stations will be gradual. I picked 50% just to illustrate the process and highlight the implications for the pace of gas to EV shift.

Essentially refineries need a minimum volume to remain profitable. I used BING AI to analyze what would happen to gas prices when gas consumption declines by 50%. The analysis is at the link below. Basically, refineries need a minimum volume to remain profitable, so do gas stations. The BING AI analysis did not predict pricing, only that some refineries will close.

https://medium.com/@bob-n-martha-roth/when-will-gas-refineries-close-3c54ac0d5898

My intuition is that the gas industry, faced with a constant decline in gas consumption and unlikely to stop or slow EV sales by lowering prices, will just milk the declining market. They will close or repurpose the facilities and increase the price of gas on the order of 30%. Most likely the price increases won’t discourage gas use in the remaining gas vehicles, but will allow maximum profit as the industry shuts down. At the same time gas stations will close as fewer vehicles stop for gas, drinks and food.

Fewer gas stations and increasing price of gas will likely drive up sales of EV’s and decrease used gas car prices. The consumer perception of vehicle purchases will shift from EV having risk to gas vehicles having more risk due to declining industry support.

What is needed to accelerate the acceptance of EV’s by high use case applications so that consumer and commercial applications that buy 50% of gas today are all in for buying EV’s in 2023? Ideally these applications will drive the demand for EV’s higher. What would slow this trend? Incorrect data about EV’s creating fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt:

EV’s cost too much.

EV’s have range issues, few people can tolerate the short range plus it takes forever to charge them.

EV’s need better public charging, it will be decades before EV’s charging infrastructure is ready

All EV’s use rare earth metals and Cobalt which supports child exploitation and will limit production rates.

EV’s battery replacement cost is a big risk

EV’s have a shorter life than gas vehicles.

EV’s have almost no range in cold weather

The above list is based on decades old and out of date information. Or perhaps published by the oil industry to discourage EV sales. This is where education comes in.

I wish the government (Federal and State) would provide up to date current information on EV technology that is proven and in production and, for planning purposes of the commercial use cases, what technology advances are expected in the next 5 years. There is also a need for stories about cost savings and real-life experiences of commercial, city, county and state fleet vehicle managers experienced with EV’s. Ideally a statewide “data base” to keep consumers and fleet managers current with the technology and with examples where EV’s are saving money.

Jeopardy game time!

The latest LFP battery chemistry, used in about 50% of EV sold, has an expected life in miles of ??

1,200,000 miles.

EV manufacturers warranty for EV batteries is ?

100,000 miles or 8 years for lowest, 120,000 miles or more for some vendors.

What is the expected life of an EV drive train in miles?

1,000,000 miles

How long does it take to add 125 miles of range overnight using s 50 amp circuit?

125 miles / 40 miles per hour or 3.1 hours.

What % of US auto trips are over 150 miles?

0.5%

What EV vendor offers public charging with 200 miles additional range in 20 minutes and with the highest quality, in service availability?

GM, Ford and Tesla. Trick question as all three vendors can use Tesla charging network.

If you plan a trip for 400 miles, say from Olympia Wa to Ashland Or, how many stops and for how long will be the charging times?

2 stops , 1 for 10 minutes and 1 for 20 minutes.

For Uber, what is the range required for one workday?

100 miles, charging over night with a 50 Amp circuit provides 99% of charging.

For police cars what is the range required for one workday?

125 miles, charging over night with a 50 Amp circuit provides 99% of charging.

Are BYD and Tesla EV’s cobolt free?

Yes EV manufacturers are eliminating Cobalt from battery chemistry

Do EV’s motors require rare earth metals?

For now yes. However, Tesla just announced a new motor design that is $1000 cheaper to manufacture and does not use rare earth elements.

Can EV’s solve cold weather range issues?

First EV’s dominate new vehicle sales in Norway, and it is quite cold in Norway. So, for many use cases it is already solved.

Second, EV’s can automatically precondition batteries for the optimal operating temperature. Just set the expected time of departure.

Third, a new battery using Sodium is entering the market in 2023 that offers superior performance in cold weather for more demanding use cases.

For police cars, which solution cost more to purchase over 12 years, Gas or EV

Gas cars. Gas cars are replaced every 4 years or about 200,000 miles. EV’s can be in service for 12 years. You would need to purchase 4 gas cars over 12 years but only one EV. Selecting an EV over gas can save $100,000 over 12 years in capital, fuel and maintenance cost.

Call to action:

I request that Washington State provides a database of EV savings and options to consider (features, battery chemistry, charging options) and economic models with specific use case analysis plus stories from end users. Collect data from cities, counties and state vehicle fleet managers on economic savings, what features or performance they want to see improved. Bring in industry comments on both current and future EV price, features and performance. Do the same for commercial applications, inviting decision makers to share their experience and wish list.

I would also request that Washington State routinely update information on the EV eco-system for products in production. This might require repeating the information several times to replace out of date beliefs that discouraged considering EV’s in the past but are no longer true.

Washington state does provide goals for EV use in an online document and expectations for charging infrastructure. However, there is no use case analysis for what configuration would best fit a given use case and optimize the economic life cycle costs.

The US Department of Transportation provides spreadsheets on the economics of EVs and charging infrastructure but no stories and suggestions for selecting the optimal battery technology and charging resources for various use cases.

Summary:

EV sales growth and acceptance will grow from new innovations in battery technology with constant improvements in range, cost, weight, and charging speed. The EV manufacturing improvements to reduce the price of EV and provide production to meet demand are both important. A constant improvement in public charging caters to a small but important service so all consumers are free to take an occasional long trip. All are important and will accelerate EV demand and reduce fossil fuel consumption.

However, growing consumer knowledge of today’s compelling cost savings, in the cases where miles driven per day are 50 to 125 and charging needs are fully met with overnight charging, fossil fuel demand will quickly drop by 50% and that is in the short term, with current EV performance and charging infrastructure. All that is needed is a story well told to consumers about the compelling savings in moving from gas to EV.