Commercial use cases for light vehicles already cheaper then gas. 20% of light vehicles consume 50% of fossil fuel. Many of those are commercial use cases. Accounting will have their cost saving. At the same time the fleet gas MPG is creeping up (hybrid, plug in hybrid…,) I would put the date for 50% reduction in fossil fuel consumption in the US at 2034 or sooner. Refineries will be shutting down or switching from gas to other products and gas stations will begin to close. Consumers will notice and used. Gas Car prices will drop, consumers will be more reluctant to buy gas cars. Note this point of 50% reduction in fossil fuel consumption will still have the majority of vehicles as gas. But EVs will have replaced the high gas consumption use cases.
So yes the shift to EV will be faster then folks think.
The other wild card will be the pace of battery technology improvements. Battery prices will fall much faster then gas engines.
The last trend is consumers will figure out they really only need 250 mile range. Many will want to buy higher range but they won’t need it. Consumer confidence in EV will become ubiquitous.
Could all of this happen sooner, say 2027?
Maybe.
Not sure GM and Ford will be dead. Maybe but improving battery tech will be available to all so it is possible to stay in the game will pretty cars and ok specs.
By the way Toyota already said they will copy Tesla’s metal manufacturing using large presses.