As the world shifts to EV and plug in EV the projected demand for oil will decline significantly. In Chine EV and plug in hybrid account for 49% of sales and growing. The 10 year projection of fossil fuel reduction is all ready significant with 25% of the vehicle fleet in China consuming 0 gasoline and diesel if the current share of market is flat. But improving EV cost and performance likely will accelerate this pace.
It is likely that near zero investment in Russian oil and refineries will be made by foreign investors.
The demand for EVs and plug in hybrids will increase in the world at a continuously faster pace as battery tech improves. Projections for 2030 suggests 2X the range for today’s price, likely 5X by 2035.

Russia knows this. Obviously they are desperate to replace oil revenues that likely will be near zero by 2035 (because no foreign investments in their declining oil infrastructure).

So bottom line Russian will plunder Ukraine, Poland, Germany … if they can.

So what will Russia do? Dump Putin, focus on building alternative revenue sources and courting foreign investment with a less threatening government. Build back their military and try to expand and plunder again.