A few relevant points. First the expected life of EV drive trains is 1,00,000 miles. Same as high end diesel truck engine. Diesel truck can have a life cycle of 30 years. But what about the battery? LFP batteries have an expected life of 1,000,000 miles. But you say range for light vehicles is only 256 miles. Ok police cars don’t take long trips, but they do patrol 8 to 12 hours a day, 100 to 150 miles a day. Today EV with a longer life, lower fuel and maintenance cost are up 50% lower cost over 12 years. 20% of light vehicles use 50% of gas consumption. These are commercial cases like police cars, Uber, delivery vans. Most of the use cases can and should use LFP batteries.

You are right, some Semi trucks can use EV but not all. Did you know battery technology is on a path to cover heavy truck use cases by 2030. Yes an educated guess but batteries with 4 times the best EV energy density have been proven in the lab this year.

My point is gas and diesel consumption will fall by 75% in high gas consumption use cases because the needs are met with lower cost. So by 2030 assuming the production ramp continues.

As to cases where limited miles are driven per year, 256 to 300 mile range is good enough- tbd what % of consumers will switch if the cost issue is not as extreme as commercial use cases? TBD. Trend is at lease 50% of those cases.

Ships and aircraft will take time to engineer a solution.


Check out Influit Energy plans for EV military use cases. Yes not in production but certainly a strong possibility.

Yes there is an issue that gas and diesel consumption fall too fast and put other uses of oil at risk.